Confidence Cracks: How Energy Shocks and Global Uncertainty Are Eroding Japan’s Corporate Mood in 2026

Japan’s business sector entered the second quarter of 2026 in a noticeably more cautious mood, as new government survey data confirmed what many company executives had already been signaling privately: the combination of surging global energy costs, geopolitical instability, and supply chain uncertainty is taking a measurable toll on corporate confidence. For the first time in more than a year, the overall business sentiment index has turned negative, with small and medium enterprises bearing a disproportionate share of the pressure. This article examines the specific factors driving the sentiment decline, explores which sectors are buckling and which are holding firm, and assesses what the shift in corporate mood means for Japan’s broader economic trajectory through the second half of 2026.








