Wealth

Summary: The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes are driving bank profit growth while exacerbating consumer pressures and inflation challenges. Although the yen’s depreciation attracts foreign tourists and boosts related industries, declining real wages are weakening purchasing power and widening the wealth gap. These economic trends may have profound implications for social stability and future investment opportunities.

Summary: This week, global economic turbulence intensified, with the U.S. dollar remaining in a low consolidation range, while the Australian dollar fluctuated around 0.63. Signs of economic recovery in Australia, along with an improvement in consumer confidence, contributed to market optimism. Looking ahead, the AUD is expected to maintain a modest uptrend, supported by U.S. policy uncertainty and interest rate differentials, with a low likelihood of a sharp decline in the near term.

Summary: In 2024, the precious metals market has performed strongly overall, with gold prices showing a general upward trend despite a recent decline. Industry experts remain optimistic, predicting that various factors may drive gold prices to new highs. Analysts suggest we are in the early stages of the third major bull market for gold, with a long-term upward trend expected to continue.

Summary: Japan's economy grew by 0.9% in the July-September period, showing moderate growth, but sluggish capital expenditure slowed the pace. Strong private consumption, a decline in capital spending, and net external demand brought new vitality. The Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low interest rates and suggests that the conditions for a future rate hike may be developing.

Summary: Japan's new government is closely collaborating with the central bank to address deflation risks. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and Bank Governor Ueda Kazuo prioritize overcoming deflation, adhering to the 2013 joint policy agreement. Both sides maintain open communication and implement suitable monetary policies to achieve the 2% price target.

Summary: The Bank of Japan is expected to lower its economic growth forecast in July, although GDP may decline slightly, but based on the view that the economy is recovering moderately, the GDP forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 are unchanged. Inflation is expected to stabilize, and the possibility of a rate hike becomes more likely this month.

Summary: New orders for Australian manufacturing rebounded after a slow start to the year, but theoutlook remains challenging. Andrew Mckellar calls for productivity issues to be addressed as manufacturers' sentiment on the outlook for the next six months improves slightly but remains pessimistic amid slowing demand improvement and rising costs.

Summary：Japan invested heavily to stabilize the yen, but the effect is limited. Yen depreciation trend continues, the market is concerned about the 160 mark. Japan or continue to intervene, but the United States warned to use caution. Analysts expect Japan will seek new strategies to strengthen the yen.

Japan's foreign exchange reserves declined mainly due to a fall in the value of external securities, with no official confirmation of possible currency intervention. Weakness of the yen affects Asian currencies and requires surveillance and timely action. Rational analysis and hedging of risks are needed to maintain regional stability through cooperation.