Recently, the White House announced that President Trump will officially announce his decision on tariffs for imported cars on April 2. This highly anticipated policy move is based on the Trump administration’s dissatisfaction with the dominance of German automakers in the U.S. market. If the tariff increase is implemented, Japan, as the second-largest car supplier to the U.S., could face significant consequences.
Historically, this is not the first time the Trump administration has addressed the issue of automobile tariffs. As early as 2018, Trump instructed the U.S. Department of Commerce to initiate an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and proposed the idea of increasing car tariffs. However, due to strong opposition both domestically and internationally, the plan was never implemented.
The current tariff decision has been in the works for some time. The Trump administration is not only considering imposing tariffs on cars but may also include semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Notably, the decision, which was originally scheduled for April 1, has been delayed to April 2 due to “personal reasons.” It is still unclear whether the announcement will simply express intent or include direct action, and the specific countries or legal basis for the decision have not been clarified.
Japan, as an important automotive supplier to the U.S., will play a key role in this potential trade conflict. The data shows:
• In 2024, Japan’s total exports to the U.S. amounted to 21.2951 trillion yen.
• Exports of cars and related products accounted for 34.1% of total exports.
• Exports of passenger cars and trucks amounted to 6.0261 trillion yen (28.3% of total exports).
• Exports of automotive parts amounted to 1.2312 trillion yen (5.8% of total exports).
Currently, the U.S. imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported cars. If the tariff rate is increased, Japan’s car manufacturers will face direct impacts. Specific data shows:
• U.S. car sales in 2024 are expected to reach 15.97 million units.
• Japanese brands (e.g., Toyota, Honda) hold nearly 40% of the U.S. market share.
• Japan exports approximately 1.37 million cars to the U.S., representing over 30% of its total exports.
• Toyota exports 530,000 cars from Japan to the U.S., accounting for 23% of its sales in the U.S. market.
• Mazda exports 230,000 cars to the U.S., making up more than half of its U.S. market sales.
This tariff decision has sparked widespread international attention and has introduced uncertainty for the Japanese automotive industry. If tariffs are increased, Japan’s car exports to the U.S. will be significantly affected, and it may also alter the landscape of the U.S. domestic car sales market. However, the legal basis and specific implementation details of the Trump administration’s decision remain unclear. Additionally, the relationship between this tariff adjustment and the Trump administration’s longstanding “reciprocal tariffs” strategy is worth watching.
In the near future, as Trump is set to make his final decision, all parties involved are closely monitoring the situation. This policy direction will not only impact U.S.-Japan economic and trade relations but could also have far-reaching effects on the global automotive supply chain.
